A Small Point about the Divorce Rate

I often hear people quoting a 55% or 60% divorce rate and mistakenly implying that any couple getting married faces less than "even odds" of making it "until death do we part." That isn't true.

What people are not considering is that the "Divorce Rate" incorporates people who are involved in multiple marriages. The divorce rate for second marriages is generally accepted to be around 66.7% and the odds of third (or higher) marriages ending in divorce is about 75%. When ALL marriages are added together you get an average divorce rate of 55% (or ~60% in some studies.)

If you work the math backwards, a 55% overall divorce rate implies a 44% divorce rate among couples marrying for the first time and that the remaining 56% of couples marrying for the first time will be married for life!

Imagine what this number would be if the church withdrew the imprimatur of approval from "christian" divorce. Can you imagine the dramatic difference this change would have on countless children's lives?

Here is how the numbers work for 1,000 couples marrying for the first time:

Calculating a Divorce Rate

	Divorce	Total	Successful	Total
	Rate	Divorces	Marriages	Marriages
1st Marriages	44.0%	440	560	1,000
2nd Marriages	66.7%	293	147	440
3rd Marriages	75.0%	220	73	293
TOTALS	55% !!!	953	780	1,733

[...and keeping in mind that these calculations assume that everyone who divorces remarries, etc. These calculations are just to demonstrate the flaw in using the overall average as a predictor of first marriages.]

Flogging the "Saints"

People have recently pointed out to me that I am "awful hard" on Christians. I taught a Sunday School lesson to a class of friends that was very direct about asking them to examine themselves and quanitify (to themselves) their real commitment to Christ. Some were offended and felt that the lesson was driven by my personal observations about them.

[sigh...]

I taught a lesson about people inapropriately elevating a church's order of worship to an "element of faith" and becoming too attached to thhe same. That became construed as, (by at least one,) an attack on church leadership.

[sigh...]

Read this blog and what will you find? Criticism of Christians...

[sigh...]

These all beg a very important question:

"Am I just a malcontent sowing disruption amongst the fellowship of believers?"

I've met folks like that and I've always hated dealing with them. I mean, let's face it, there will always be something to criticise and some folks will never pass up a chance to do so. Is that me?

I've questioned myself and searched my heart about my motives and here is what I find:

I find that being an American Christian, (with "Christian" politics, "Christian" education, "Christian" behavior, "Christian" world-views and "Christian" opinions,) has become more important to many people than being a follower of Christ.

The letters of the New Testament speak repeatedly and powerfully about unity among believers in following Christ, but American Christians have substituted conformity and accomodation of sin for that call to unity and diminsish the call to follow God in the interest of maintaining order and sustaining a status quo.

Finally, and most terribly, I find Christians clamoring about the disintegration of our country's values and principals at a time when the collapse of Christian integrity is one of the greatest factors propelling the destruction of our country's values and principals.

As I sit here and write these things, foremost in my mind is the Pastor at my church, a man I sincerely love and respect. Paul carries a burden for the lost in our community and seeks to serve and follow Christ. Am I criticising Paul? No. He's no more perfect than I am and he makes his share of mistakes, but I deeply believe his heart is all about serving Our Lord. And my heart goes out to him in the work he has taken on.

Leading a church today is like trying to herd cats. And in the effort to get a group of modern "believers", (with their narcissism and relentless self-centeredness,) to move in in a common direction requires acts that could easily unwind the very purpose of our gathering. As with the Pharisees, the drive to conform Christians to human rules threatens the very soul of believers. And I've seen this danger in the majority of churches I've visited in my adult life.

Ultimately there is only one remedy for this problem: Christ calling us as individuals and changing our hearts.

I put these lessons, these observations, out in the desire that God will find those "who have an ear to hear" and possibly use these postings within His Will for others. I do know He has used these points to reprimand me. I pray that God will protect others from unwarranted criticism and that hearts will be pricked only according to His Will.

Given my profound personal failings, I'm very wary of casting myself as a "Righteous Source of Truth sent to Reprimand Deluded Sinners and Misguided Saints!" I try to remain open to criticism while also taking it with a grain of salt. I've found that Jane Bean's saying from many years ago is still true about me, and probably similarly true about others:

"The Truth will set you free, but first it's gonna tick you off."

My deepest hope is that people will hear me out and then take these things before The Lord for His direction. And I understand and accept that anyone who believes that Christians' role is to stand in judgemnent of the lost are going to find my postings uncomfortable.

That's Better...

Y'know,I've got something on my mind about a local ministry that has been bothering me. And, though I want to stomp and snort and flap my arms about it all, the truth is that I'll just be another person sowing miscontent and confusion if I vent to anyone but God.

I guess I'd rather not. So let's praise God instead.

I love the song by Accapella "To Him Who Sits on the Throne":

To Him Who sits On the throne And unto the Lamb
Be praise and honor and glory and power, forever and ever!

I've got it on the player as I write.

"Within your temple, O God, we meditate on your unfailing love.

Like your name, O God, your praise reaches to the ends of the earth; your right hand is filled with righteousness. Mount Zion rejoices, the villages of Judah are glad
because of your judgments.

Walk about Zion, go around her, count her towers, consider well her ramparts,
view her citadels, that you may tell of them to the next generation.

For this God is our God for ever and ever; he will be our guide even to the end."

- Psalm 48:9-14

and the end of Psalm 22, that wonderful prophesy of the crucifixion which ends with praise...

"I will declare your name to my brothers;
in the congregation I will praise you.
You who fear the Lord, praise him!
All you descendants of Jacob, honor him!
Revere him, all you descendants of Israel!
For he has not despised or disdained
the suffering of the afflicted one;
he has not hidden his face from him
but has listened to his cry for help.

From you comes the theme of my praise in the great assembly;
before those who fear youe will I fulfill my vows.
The poor will eat and be satisfied;
they who seek the Lord will praise him—
may your hearts live forever!
All the ends of the earth
will remember and turn to the Lord,
and all the families of the nations
will bow down before him,
for dominion belongs to the Lord
and he rules over the nations.

All the rich of the earth will feast and worship;
all who go down to the dust will kneel before him—
those who cannot keep themselves alive.
Posterity will serve him;
future generations will be told about the Lord.
They will proclaim his righteousness
to a people yet unborn—
for he has done it.

- Psalm 22:22-31

And now I think I can sleep.

We praise you Lord Jesus!

Well, I guess it beats following Jesus...

If I'm honest, I have to admit that sometimes Christians drive me nuts. Why? Here's an example, I just got the following email message:

"At the September 2007 Emmy awards, comedian Kathy Griffin's acceptance speech said, "A lot of people come up here and thank Jesus for this award I want you to know that no one had less to do with this award than Jesus." She went on to say,"Suck it, Jesus. This is my God now!" referring to the Emmy. As a Christian, I am offended by her hate speech. What do you think might have happened if she had made the hate speech against Muhammad????

Kathy Griffin has the right as an American to say what she thinks. As a Christian-American, so do I. Today I will refuse to watch any show that she may be on or purchase tickets to any event at which she would perform. What will you do? If you delete this, nothing bad will happen to you, but if you pass this on, you will truly have stood up for Jesus Christ. Let's see what the 80% of Christian-Americans can do."

Now let's stop, relax, and think this through...

Kathy Griffin is a shock comedienne. This is how she has made her reputation and fortune! Boycotting Kathy Griffin is like punishing a dog by feeding it bacon! Throwing a fit and publicizing a boycott is a gift to Ms. Griffin that rewards her comments. If you must punish her, the best way to do it is ignore her! I say "if" because I think there's a better way:

"I am sending you out like sheep among wolves. Therefore be as shrewd as snakes and as innocent as doves."

- Matthew 10:16 NIV

When did the followers of Jesus Christ
get called into the business of
punishing our enemies?

We're really confusing the lost! The Jesus who saved me and forgave me of so many, many sins past, present, and future told me:

"Love your enemies."

Did Jesus organize boycotts? Is this our Gospel, our Good News for the lost, boycotting comediennes?

When I came to you, brothers, I did not come with eloquence or superior wisdom as I proclaimed to you the testimony about God. For I resolved to know nothing while I was with you except Jesus Christ and him crucified. I came to you in weakness and fear, and with much trembling. My message and my preaching were not with wise and persuasive words, but with a demonstration of the Spirit’s power, so that your faith might not rest on men’s wisdom, but on God’s power.

- 1 Corinthians 2:1-5

You aren't supposed to be surprised when lost people act in ignorance and foolishness. That's what we all did before Jesus came into our lives.

I would love to see Kathy Griffin's world view rattled. Wouldn't it be wonderful if someone would say something vile like that and then be absolutely smothered in an outpouring of love from Christ's followers in a tidal wave of compassion and generosity that overwhelmed their anger and bitterness? That's what Jesus did for me!

Paul said it best:

You see, at just the right time, when we were still powerless, Christ died for the ungodly. Very rarely will anyone die for a righteous man, though for a good man someone might possibly dare to die. But God demonstrates his own love for us in this: While we were still sinners, Christ died for us.

Since we have now been justified by his blood, how much more shall we be saved from God’s wrath through him! For if, when we were God’s enemies, we were reconciled to him through the death of his Son, how much more, having been reconciled, shall we be saved through his life! Not only is this so, but we also rejoice in God through our Lord Jesus Christ, through whom we have now received reconciliation.

- Romans 5:6-11 NIV

Let's get over this whole boycott thing and stop forwarding these messages. Hitting the "delete" key will be a much more powerful display of the Good News we've been given.